Checking in with CSU’s hurricane forecasters
| August 17, 2009 | 10:51 AM
More journal entries from Cindy House »
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project issues regular forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season, updating them throughout the year as conditions change. The most recent update was Aug. 4, and the team downgraded its forecast because of a Pacific Ocean El Nino, which tempers the conditions that contribute to storms in the Atlantic.
The Atlantic season runs until the end of November, and the forecast team predicts 10 named storms between now and then. The team’s initial forecast last December called for 14 named storms, which decreased to 12 in April, and 11 in the June forecast. Since the August forecast was issued, three named storms have formed: Ana, Bill and Claudette. Ana and Claudette are tropical depressions, and Claudette has already come ashore over the Gulf Coast. Ana is expected to weaken as it goes through the Caribbean before coming ashore roughly where Claudette did.
The CSU team also predicts four hurricanes this season, two of which will be major. This is down from seven hurricanes forecast in December, six in April and five in June. Bill, currently sitting out in the middle of the Atlantic, is a Category 1 hurricane but is strengthening as it moves west-northwest toward Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, and it could become a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) by Wednesday.
CSU’s prediction calls for a 46 percent chance of a major Atlantic hurricane making landfall along any part of the U.S. coast, down from 48 percent in June. The East Coast has a 27 percent chance, and the Gulf Coast has a 26 percent chance, both down from 28 percent in June.
atlantic ocean, colorado state university, forecast, hurricane, meteorology, weather
