Worst case: Half of the U.S. may get swine flu
| August 25, 2009 | 11:36 AM
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Half of the nation’s population could come down with swine flu this season, according to a new worst-case-scenario report from the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
In addition, 90,000 could die in the pandemic, and the virus could send up to 1.8 million people to hospitals for treatment. The outbreak is expected to peak in mid October. Unfortunately, that’s also when the swine flu vaccine is expected to be ready.
Normally, about 35,000 people – mostly elderly — die of flu each year in the U.S. The novel H1N1 swine-flu virus is different in that its effects are worse for younger people. Older folks already may have some type of immunity to the disease.
To respond to the expected peak, government officials are urging vaccine makers to get doses out by mid September for those at highest risk from the virus. Even then, though, people who receive the vaccine may not be fully immunized. Experts think two doses taken three weeks apart may be necessary. And the vaccine wouldn’t be fully effective for another week or so after the second dose, for a total time of five or six weeks.
Rushing the vaccine into use carries its own risks, especially since clinical trials on safety and effectiveness just started. Early results show no serious side effects, but the trials won’t be complete until mid October.
Vaccine watchdogs have urged the government to learn from the mistakes made during the mass flu innoculation campaign of 1976. Twenty-five people died from that vaccine, and hundreds of Americans developed the rare and sometimes fatal neurological disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome.
Experts have blamed those complications on rushing the production and field testing of the 1976 vaccine.
Cindy House, City, Journals, Region
outbreak, pandemic, swine flu, vaccine, virus
