Rockies’ magic number: 91 wins
| September 18, 2009 | 10:18 AM
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Late last month, around the time the Colorado Rockies were solidifying their playoff position with walk-off wins against the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, it looked as if the National League wild-card winner would need somewhere around 93 or 94 wins to finish to job. Since then, the Rockies have struggled at times, but so has their competition — 90 wins now looks like a reasonable target.
The wild-card standings now are nearly exactly where they were on Aug. 26 after Ryan Spilborghs hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 14th inning to beat the Giants. The Los Angeles Dodgers are more secure in the National League West standings — five games now versus three games then — but trailing the Rockies now are the Giants, Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins and Chicago Cubs, the same teams in the same order they were on Aug. 26. The Giants, Marlins and Cubs are each a half game closer to the Rockies than they were then, but the situation is remarkably similar but for one major difference: the number of games left on the schedule. The Rockies open their series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday at 83-64 with just 15 games remaining. The Giants and Cubs have 16 games remaining, the Marlins 15 and the Cubs 17.
The Rockies would reach 90 wins with a 7-8 record in their remaining games. For instance, this scenario would do it: one win against the Diamondbacks in Arizona this weekend, two against the Padres at home, one against the Cardinals at home, two against the Brewers at home and one more either against the Dodgers in Los Angeles in the season-ending series or spread across the Rockies’ other four series (taking two of three from either the Diamondbacks or Cardinals or sweeping the Padres or Brewers).
To reach 90 wins, the Giants must go 11-5 the rest of the season. San Francisco is 10 games under .500 on the road and plays nine of its last 16 away from home, including three games in Los Angeles. A 4-5 record in road games would allow them no room for error at home in seven games against the Cubs and the Diamondbacks.
To reach 90 wins, the Braves must go 12-4. Atlanta does have seven games left against the Washington Nationals and three against the New York Mets. But with three games against the Philadelphia Phillies and three against wild-card rival Florida, the Braves have to be nearly perfect to reach 90.
To reach 90 wins, the Marlins must go 12-3. With six games left against the Phillies and three against the Braves in Atlanta, this will extremely difficult.
To reach 90 wins, the Cubs must go 15-2. As the Rockies proved in 2007, this is not an impossible route to the playoffs. But the Cubs start a 10-game road trip Friday that takes them to St. Louis, Milwaukee and San Francisco. If they can survive that, they return home for seven games against the Pirates and Diamondbacks, but the road trip will be a brutal task for a team that for the past month has been looking ahead to next season.
So, the road to 90 wins for the Rockies’ competition is not easy. The Marlins and Cubs, given their schedules, are long shots to leap three and four teams. The Giants and Braves are better situated, but each team plays its toughest remaining series this weekend against opponents trying to lock up their own playoff spots: the Giants travel to Los Angeles and the Braves host the Phillies. Either team being swept would dramatically hurt its playoff chances.
Given the Rockies’ play in San Diego and San Francisco over the past week, their road doesn’t look much safer. But 7-8 to finish looks very possible given the number of games the Rockies have left in Coors Field. An 8-7 record (say a 7-2 homestand and one road win) would give the Rockies 91 wins and likely finish the job this season. To do that, the Rockies need to play like they did during their 10-game homestand to start the month and forget that they ever set eyes on the Pacific Ocean in the past week.
Journals, Sports, Steve Foster
atlanta braves, chicago cubs, colorado rockies, florida marlins, san francisco giants
